Updated Player Rankings for Cubs vs Brewers - September 9th, 2026

+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-135

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kevin Gausman has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Seiya Suzuki has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
In today’s matchup, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.3% rate (99th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
Considering the 1.26 disparity between Logan Henderson’s 2.48 ERA and his 3.74 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and should negatively regress in the future.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)
From last season to this one, Sal Frelick’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 88.2 mph to 85.6 mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+6.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 away games (+15.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
Garrett Mitchell has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)

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