Red Sox vs Orioles Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday September 5, 2026

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sonny Gray to throw 78 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  When it comes to his home runs, Roman Anthony has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 13.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Boston Red Sox have done a weak job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 12.3° mark is among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season (#28 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Chris Bassitt’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (54.7% vs. 49.2% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Dylan Beavers is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.05 Units / 40% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)