Review the Giants vs Pirates Insights and Game Breakdown - September 1, 2026

+135O/U: 7.5
(-105/-115)-160

Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Logan Webb’s four-seam fastball usage has increased by 5.6% from last season to this one (7.9% to 13.5%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Rafael Devers has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Paul Skenes’s 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph decline from last year’s 97.5-mph figure.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Brandon Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 11.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last two weeks.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 49% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics