
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Detroit Tigers
-180O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+155
(-110/-110)+155
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Blake Snell has relied on his non-fastballs 5.4% less often this year (51%) than he did last season (56.4%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)When assessing his batting average talent, Shohei Ohtani is projected as the 11th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Among all starting pitchers, Keider Montero’s fastball spin rate of 2229 rpm is in the 23rd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Hao-Yu Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Hao Yu Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
