Expert Player Predictions for Rockies vs Nationals – Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Gordon has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.4% more often this season (56.6%) than he did last year (47.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Connor Norby has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Matt Waldron’s 2065-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 10th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Dylan Crews has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 94.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brady House – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brady House has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Connor Norby has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 92% ROI)