Live Score for Reds vs D-Backs - August 22nd, 2026

+165O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-195

Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
Rhett Lowder has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 5.17 mark is a good deal higher than his 4.62 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so JJ Bleday has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Michael Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Among all starters, Michael Soroka’s fastball spin rate of 2521 rpm is in the 94th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Ildemaro Vargas is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cincinnati (#2-best on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
The 7.2% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #25 team in the game this year by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
Gabriel Moreno has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)

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