Learn How to Watch the Blue Jays vs Giants Game – July 09, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oracle Park on July 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of below average seasons. The Giants hold a 44-47 record, while the Blue Jays are 41-49. This interleague matchup marks the first game in the series and presents an intriguing pitching duel between two left-handers: Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi.

Blake Snell, projected to start for the Giants, has had a rough season with a 0-3 record and a 9.51 ERA. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. In his last start on June 2, Snell pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs with 7 strikeouts, 5 hits, and 3 walks. Despite his high strikeout rate (26.1 K%), the Blue Jays’ offense is disciplined, ranking 5th in least strikeouts and 6th in most walks in MLB, making this a challenging matchup for Snell.

Yusei Kikuchi, the Blue Jays’ starter, holds a 4-8 record with a 4.12 ERA and has been slightly unlucky with a 3.43 xFIP. Kikuchi’s projections indicate he will pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.6 earned runs, and strike out 5.4 batters—a solid performance. In his last start on July 3, he pitched 6 innings, allowing 2 earned runs with 5 strikeouts, 5 hits, and 2 walks.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in MLB, but they struggle with power and speed, ranking 20th in home runs and 30th in stolen bases. The Blue Jays rank 18th overall but have significant issues with power, sitting 28th in home runs and 26th in stolen bases. Notably, the Giants’ Michael Conforto and the Blue Jays’ George Springer have been hot at the plate over the last week.

The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 1st in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a decisive factor, especially given the Blue Jays’ bullpen’s 23rd rank. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Giants as slight favorites with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than the implied odds.

With both teams looking to turn their seasons around, this matchup promises to be closely contested. The Giants’ slight edge in pitching and bullpen strength might just tip the balance in their favor.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 83rd percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has had some very poor luck this year. His .297 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .355.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Blake Snell to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Patrick Bailey has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)