Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)+100
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves are set to square off in the second game of their series on July 9, 2024, at Chase Field. The Braves took the first game in a nail-biter, edging out the D-Backs 5-4. This National League matchup features two elite starting pitchers: Zac Gallen for the D-Backs and Chris Sale for the Braves.
The D-Backs, currently holding a 45-46 record, are having an average season, while the Braves, at 50-39, are enjoying a good season. Both teams have potent offenses, with Arizona ranking 10th in MLB and Atlanta 13th. Christian Walker has been the standout for the D-Backs, boasting a .265 batting average and 22 homers, while Marcell Ozuna leads the Braves with a .292 average and 23 home runs.
Gallen, with a 6-4 record and a stellar 3.06 ERA, will look to rebound from an uneventful start on July 4, where he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings. Despite his solid ERA, his 3.83 xERA suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season. Sale, on the other hand, is coming off a strong performance on July 3, pitching 6 innings with 9 strikeouts and just 1 earned run. His 2.71 ERA and 11-3 record underline his dominance.
The betting markets see this game as a close one, with the D-Backs’ moneyline set at +100 and the Braves at -120. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the D-Backs a slight edge with a 53% win probability, suggesting some value in betting on Arizona. The D-Backs are projected to score 4.14 runs on average, slightly higher than the Braves’ 4.09.
Both bullpens will play a crucial role, with the Braves’ bullpen ranked 8th in MLB, offering a significant advantage over the D-Backs’ 18th-ranked bullpen. With Gallen and Sale on the mound, expect a low-scoring game, as indicated by the 7.5-run Game Total.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- The Atlanta Braves offense projects for the 6th-least runs of all teams today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 88 games (+22.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Adam Duvall – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 61% ROI)