Marlins vs Mets Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/01/2026

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

Miami Marlins Insights

• Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Tyler Phillips will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #26 squad in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Zachary Thornton’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Bo Bichette has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.