Yankees vs Cubs Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Friday July 31, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Chicago Cubs

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Will Warren is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Spencer Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Spencer Jones has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.1-mph to 100.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Shota Imanaga’s sinker percentage has increased by 5.5% from last season to this one (1.2% to 6.7%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)