See the Updated Player Rankings for Phillies vs Marlins – July 29, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Jesus Luzardo’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 85th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Edmundo Sosa has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 87.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bryson Stott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Ryan Gusto has recorded 10.6 outs per start this year, checking in at the 1st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Xavier Edwards are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-135/+105)
  Jesus Luzardo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 52% ROI)