Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Orioles vs Red Sox – Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Kyle Bradish has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Despite posting a .297 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has been unlucky given the .048 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .345.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Today’s version of the Orioles projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .322 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .336 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Ranger Suarez has used his four-seamer 7% more often this year (21.7%) than he did last season (14.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jarren Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox hitters as a unit have been among the worst in the majors this year ( 3rd-worst) in regard to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+14.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+12.00 Units / 150% ROI)