Player Props for Pirates vs Guardians - Sunday July 19, 2026

-110O/U: 7
(+100/-120)-110

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Paul Skenes’s 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 97.5-mph figure.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan Reynolds has been lucky given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .343.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Joey Cantillo is projected to strikeout 6.2 hitters in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Brayan Rocchio is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Jacob Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
Jacob Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)

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