Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Cubs Saturday, July 4, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Leahy to throw 84 pitches today (5th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Shota Imanaga has utilized his sinker 5.2% more often this year (6.4%) than he did last year (1.2%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  When assessing his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 17th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 41% ROI)