Player Stats for Yankees vs Red Sox - June 28th, 2026

-105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-115

Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Carlos Rodon has posted an 11.9% Swinging Strike% this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.1-mph mark last season has lowered to 83.9-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Sonny Gray is expected to tally an average of 5.8 strikeouts in today’s game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Nathan Eaton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.248) provides evidence that Nate Eaton has been lucky since the start of last season with his .341 actual wOBA.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Today’s version of the Red Sox projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
Andruw Monasterio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)
Andruw Monasterio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+8.50 Units / 121% ROI)

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