Cleveland Guardians
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Chicago White Sox
-110O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Parker Messick – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)Generating 17.3 outs per start this year on average, Parker Messick falls in the 79th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Parker Messick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Patrick Bailey, the Guardians’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Sean Burke has used his four-seamer 6.3% less often this season (36.8%) than he did last year (43.1%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Braden Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Braden Montgomery is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago White Sox bats as a unit grade out 7th- in baseball for power this year when using their 9.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 away games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)