Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Mets vs Phillies – Sunday, June 21, 2026

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets Insights

• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Compared to the average starter, Zack Wheeler has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Derek Hill generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)