
Baltimore Orioles
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Boston Red Sox
+115O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Shane Baz has gone to his curveball 6.4% more often this year (33.3%) than he did last year (26.9%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Boston’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Coby Mayo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Coby Mayo pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-135)Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Mickey Gasper is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Boston Red Sox with a 20.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+210/-280)Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
