Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Reds Match – Friday May 22, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Kyle Leahy will record an average of 14.9 outs in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jordan Walker has compiled a .432 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chris Paddack’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (58.4% compared to 50.9% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  JJ Bleday has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.8% rate last season to 15% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)