Find the Best Nationals vs Marlins Picks and Odds – 5/10/2026

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Cade Cavalli in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brady House – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (5.1) may lead us to conclude that Brady House has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 13.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Sandy Alcantara turned in a great performance in his last game started and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jakob Marsee is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts