Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs Rays – May 6th, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Patrick Corbin’s 2143.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 18th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Tyler Heineman has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .260 BA is a fair amount higher than his .189 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane McClanahan – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Shane McClanahan has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 11.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+110/-140)
  Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 70% ROI)