Player Prop Bets for Reds vs Pirates – May 1st, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brady Singer’s sinker utilization has risen by 8.3% from last year to this one (40.8% to 49.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Over his last 3 games started, Mitch Keller has suffered a sizeable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2328 rpm over the entire season to 2276 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.8-mph average to last year’s 97.3-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+22.35 Units / 89% ROI)