Read Phillies vs Cubs Picks and Betting Odds - Monday April 20, 2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Aaron Nola has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
Colin Rea’s change-up percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (12.3% to 17.5%) .
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Michael Busch has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.9-mph dropping to 68.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
The Chicago Cubs projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)

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