Player Analysis for Guardians vs Cardinals - April 13, 2026

-120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+100

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Compared to the average pitcher, Gavin Williams has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.9 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
David Fry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
Utilizing Statcast metrics, David Fry grades out in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .144.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Matthew Liberatore has used his change-up 7.7% more often this year (20.3%) than he did last season (12.6%).
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
Jordan Walker has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.2% rate last year to 24.2% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Chase DeLauter – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
Chase DeLauter has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics