Check Out the Astros vs Mariners Best Bets and Expert Picks - Monday April 13, 2026

+145O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-165

Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Mike Burrows’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 76th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Carlos Correa has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 94.6-mph in the past week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
Tallying 92.9 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, George Kirby falls in the 83rd percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (42.2) suggests that Cal Raleigh has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 48.4 actual HR/600.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
Dominic Canzone has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+9.90 Units / 141% ROI)

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