Learn About D-Backs vs Phillies Picks and Betting Trends – Sunday April 12, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Zac Gallen has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an extra 5.6 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.8-mph mark last year has fallen to 83.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters jointly rank 10th- in the game for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zach Pop – Over/Under Strikeouts
  When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Zach Pop in the 8th percentile among all SPs in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Bryce Harper has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .260 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .288 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)