Player Insights for D-Backs vs Phillies - 4/10/26

+155O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-175

Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Michael Soroka’s 2529.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
In comparison to his 90.7-mph average last year, Ketel Marte’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.8 mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
Compared to average, Jesus Luzardo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 7.1 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
When it comes to his batting average, Bryce Harper has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .258 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .288.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-175)
The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)

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