Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Tigers Match – Saturday April 04, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Detroit Tigers

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The Detroit Tigers have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Dustin May in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under Stolen Bases
  This year, there has been a decline in Nolan Gorman’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 23.28 ft/sec currently.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under Strikeouts
  In his previous GS, Jack Flaherty didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.315) suggests that Parker Meadows has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .272 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Detroit Tigers bats collectively place 7th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 9.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under Team Total
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)