Bets and Betting Tips for Astros vs Angels – September 28, 2025

Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

On September 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Astros are coming off a decisive 6-1 victory over the Angels in their last game, further solidifying their position with an 86-75 record for the season. In contrast, the Angels sit at 72-89, struggling to find their footing in a disappointing campaign.

The Angels are projected to start Samuel Aldegheri, a left-handed pitcher who has had a rough season, ranking as the 318th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Aldegheri has a Win/Loss record of 0-1 this year, with an alarming 8.00 ERA and a tendency to issue walks, boasting a 14.6 BB%. He projects to allow 3.1 earned runs over 4.9 innings, which could spell trouble against a potent Astros lineup.

Cristian Javier will take the mound for Houston, bringing a more favorable 4.62 ERA and a solid strikeout rate. Although he has also faced challenges, his 3.28 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Javier projects to give up 2.6 earned runs in 4.8 innings, which puts him in a strong position against an Angels offense that ranks 24th in MLB overall, despite their impressive power numbers, sitting 4th in home runs.

With the Astros currently positioned as a mid-tier offense, ranking 15th overall, they have the edge in this matchup. The projections indicate that the Astros’ offense could exploit Aldegheri’s weaknesses, while Javier’s ability to limit runs could help secure another win for Houston. The Angels will need to rely on their power hitters to turn Javier’s fly balls into home runs if they hope to turn the tide in this series.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Cristian Javier will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zach Cole Jr. – Over/Under Total Bases
  Zach Cole has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (38.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Samuel Aldegheri doesn’t generate many whiffs (0th percentile K%) — great news for Cole.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Houston Astros hitters as a group rank among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 2nd-worst) when it comes to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Mike Trout – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mike Trout has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 99.2-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Teodosio – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Teodosio in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under Team Total
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+15.40 Units / 9% ROI)