Rays vs Rangers Betting Guide – July 07, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers, hosting the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on July 7, 2024, find themselves in the midst of an underwhelming season. With a 41-48 record, the Rangers have struggled to gain momentum, while the Rays, sitting at 44-45, have managed to stay somewhat afloat, thanks to a series of consistent performances.

Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Rangers, bringing his solid 3.15 ERA and above-average status as the 63rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his strong ERA, Eovaldi’s peripheral stats—3.67 SIERA and 3.74 xERA—suggest he may have been fortunate this season and could regress. However, he should benefit from facing a Rays offense that ranks 26th in home runs and lacks the power to challenge his high ground-ball tendencies. Eovaldi projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.5 batters, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Zack Littell, on the bump for the Rays, comes in with a 3.94 ERA over 16 starts. His projections are less favorable than Eovaldi’s, with an expected 5.5 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 4.3 strikeouts. Littell faces a Rangers offense that ranks 21st overall, indicating a below-average lineup.

The Rangers’ Wyatt Langford has been on a tear, batting .381 with an impressive 1.194 OPS over the last week, while Isaac Paredes from the Rays has also been strong, posting a 1.156 OPS and two home runs in his last six games.

The Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 19th, slightly trails the Rays’ 13th-ranked bullpen, potentially giving Tampa Bay a late-game edge. The betting markets have the Rangers at -135, with an implied win probability of 55%, making them slight favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays’ moneyline of +115 implies a 45% chance of victory. With both teams’ offenses struggling and strong pitching on both sides, the 7.5 run Game Total suggests a low-scoring affair.

Overall, this matchup appears balanced, but the Rangers’ recent offensive form and Eovaldi’s knack for ground balls might give them the slight edge needed to clinch the series’ third game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Zack Littell projects to average 1.2 walks in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  In terms of his batting average, Ben Rortvedt has had positive variance on his side this year. His .269 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 63.1% of the time, ranking in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Texas Rangers hitters as a group rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+15.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 86 games (+26.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+15.45 Units / 29% ROI)