Reds vs Brewers Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/27/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on September 27, 2025, the stakes are high, especially for the Brewers, who are looking to solidify their playoff position with a strong finish to the season. Currently holding a record of 96-64, the Brewers are enjoying a fantastic season, while the Reds stand at 82-78, having had a more average year. In their last matchup, the Brewers came out on top, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher with a modest projection of 4.3 innings and an average of 1.9 earned runs allowed. While Gasser’s strikeout rate of 4.1 is below average, he’ll face a Reds lineup that ranks 18th in MLB this season, struggling with a .240 batting average. This could play to Gasser’s advantage, especially given his ability to limit damage.

Opposing him will be Andrew Abbott, also a left-handed pitcher, who has had a solid season with a 2.80 ERA and a respectable 9-7 record. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Abbott’s low walk rate (6.5 BB%) will be tested against a Brewers offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks. If he can maintain his control, he could neutralize one of Milwaukee’s key strengths.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 3rd in team batting average, which indicates their ability to make contact and get on base. Despite ranking just 20th in home runs, their speed on the bases (2nd in MLB for stolen bases) adds another dynamic to their game. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense has struggled, ranking 20th in batting average and 21st in home runs, limiting their scoring potential.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, the betting lines favor the Brewers at -150, reflecting their strong position this season. As both teams clash, all eyes will be on how well Gasser and Abbott perform under pressure, potentially determining the outcome of this crucial matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Andrew Abbott has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.9 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Robert Gasser – Over/Under Strikeouts
  With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robert Gasser will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+215/-290)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 84.7-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 77.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 80 of their last 126 games (+27.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 130 games (+27.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)