Explore the Game Breakdown: Rockies vs Giants Team Stats and Insights – 9/27/2025

Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on September 27, 2025, the stakes may not be high in terms of playoff contention, but both teams are looking to end their seasons on a positive note. The Giants, with a record of 79-81, are having a mediocre season, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 43-117. In their last matchup, the Giants secured a 6-3 victory, which could provide them with some momentum heading into this game.

The Giants are projected to start Justin Verlander, who, despite a disappointing 3-11 record this year, boasts a solid 3.88 ERA. Verlander is a high-flyball pitcher, which could work in his favor against a Rockies offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 6th least in MLB with only 157 home runs. Conversely, Kyle Freeland will take the mound for Colorado. While Freeland’s 5.00 ERA indicates below-average performance, his 4.28 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve.

Offensively, the Giants rank 22nd in the league, which is indicative of their struggles at the plate, particularly in batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense is not much better, sitting at 27th in MLB. Betting odds favor the Giants significantly, with a moneyline of -230, suggesting an implied team total of 4.80 runs, compared to the Rockies’ low projection of 3.20 runs.

With their pitching advantage and the Rockies’ offensive woes, the Giants look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Oracle Park. If Verlander can limit the damage and the Giants’ bats wake up, they are set to continue their positive trajectory against a struggling Rockies squad.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 83 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+265/-380)
  Kyle Karros has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.8-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Justin Verlander’s slider usage has spiked by 11.5% from last year to this one (19.3% to 30.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Wilmer Flores has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .303 figure is a good deal higher than his .273 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 91 of their last 155 games (+19.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.25 Units / 34% ROI)