Game Recap for Mets vs Marlins – Friday, September 26th, 2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to take on the New York Mets on September 26, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Marlins sit at 77-82, while the Mets are enjoying an above-average campaign at 82-77. Despite the Marlins’ struggles, they will look to leverage their home field advantage at LoanDepot Park in this National League East showdown.

Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. Although his 10-12 record and 5.48 ERA indicate a tough season, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.22 xFIP points to potential improvement. Alcantara’s ability to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs aligns with average expectations, but he will need to tighten up his command, as he projects to allow a troubling 5.3 hits and 1.8 walks per outing.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Brandon Sproat, who has only started three games this year and holds a 0-1 record with a solid 3.94 ERA. However, his projections show weaknesses, as he is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.7 walks. Sproat’s high groundball rate could be beneficial against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in home runs, meaning the Mets’ pitching strategy may effectively neutralize Miami’s limited power.

The Marlins’ bullpen ranks 26th, which could be a critical factor, particularly if the game is close late. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense, ranked 6th, boasts significant firepower, especially with their 4th best home run tally in the league. Given the projections and current form, the Mets’ superior lineup and pitching depth give them the edge in this encounter. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Brandon Sproat – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball hitters, Brandon Sproat and his 48% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s game going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) provides evidence that Francisco Alvarez has been very fortunate this year with his .349 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)
  The New York Mets projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Sandy Alcantara has been unlucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 5.48 mark is quite a bit higher than his 4.32 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Liam Hicks is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 97 games (+20.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+15.30 Units / 170% ROI)