Find the Best Brewers vs Nationals Picks and Odds – 8/3/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

On August 3, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Nationals Park for the second game of their series. After a tough 8-3 loss to the Brewers on August 2, the Nationals continue to struggle, sitting at 49-61 this season. Their performance has been disappointing, reflected in their 25th ranking in offensive production and a bullpen ranked dead last in the league.

In contrast, the Brewers are enjoying a solid season at 62-47, currently ranked 9th in offensive output and 10th in bullpen performance. They have capitalized on their strengths, particularly in their recent matchup, where they showcased their ability to score runs effectively.

Projected starters for this game include DJ Herz for the Nationals and Aaron Civale for the Brewers. Herz, a left-hander, has had a rough season with a 1-4 record and a 4.79 ERA, though he had a decent outing in his last start, going five innings with two earned runs and eight strikeouts. Despite this, he ranks as the 106th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is average among his peers. Conversely, Civale has struggled as well, with a 2-7 record and a 4.92 ERA, but he has pitched 21 games this season, indicating some experience.

THE BAT X projects the Nationals to score around 4.32 runs, while the Brewers are expected to put up 5.13 runs. With the Nationals’ offense lacking power—ranking 29th in home runs—Civale’s tendency to allow fly balls may not be as detrimental as it would be against a more potent lineup. Betting markets reflect a close matchup, with the Nationals having a moneyline of +100 and the Brewers at -120, suggesting an intriguing contest ahead.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Aaron Civale is projected to average 16.6 outs today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Sal Frelick is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  William Contreras has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, DJ Herz will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jacob Young has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+100)
  The 2nd-weakest projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 101 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 100 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+15.00 Units / 47% ROI)