Chicago White Sox
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)-150
The Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox are set to square off on July 7, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in an interleague matchup. Both teams are enduring dismal seasons, with the Marlins sitting at 31-58 and the White Sox slightly worse at 26-65. The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series, including a narrow 4-3 victory yesterday, where they were underdogs.
Edward Cabrera will take the mound for Miami, sporting a 1-2 record and a troubling 7.17 ERA. However, his 3.52 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Cabrera’s high-groundball rate (51%) could neutralize Chicago’s lack of power (27th in MLB with 80 home runs), while his high walk rate (14.4%) might not be exploited by the White Sox, who are the 2nd-least patient team in the league.
On the other side, Jonathan Cannon will start for Chicago. Cannon has a 1-2 record with a 4.62 ERA, which is more respectable but still average. His 3.81 xFIP indicates some bad luck as well. Cannon’s low walk rate (4.2%) might play into the Marlins’ hands, as Miami ranks 1st in MLB for the least walks, potentially allowing them to make more contact.
Offensively, both teams have struggled mightily. The Marlins rank dead last in MLB in overall offense and home runs, while the White Sox aren’t much better, ranking 29th in both categories. However, Miami’s bullpen is ranked 14th, compared to Chicago’s 29th, which could be a deciding factor in a close game.
The Marlins are currently favored with a moneyline of -145, translating to a 57% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Miami a 65% chance of winning, suggesting value in betting on the Marlins. They project Miami to score 4.95 runs, a high projection, compared to the White Sox’s low projection of 3.81 runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Jonathan Cannon projects to strikeout an average of 3.9 batters in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Lenyn Sosa has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .252 BA is a good deal lower than his .305 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Korey Lee, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Edward Cabrera has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 13.7% more often this season (76.8%) than he did last year (63.1%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Over the past 7 days, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Miami’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the majors: #23 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.10 Units / 51% ROI)