Live Updates for Dodgers vs D-Backs – 9/23/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 23, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League West matchup. The Dodgers are battling for a solid playoff position with an 88-68 record, while the Diamondbacks sit at 79-77, struggling to maintain momentum in the season’s final stretch. In their last game, the Dodgers secured a convincing victory, bolstered by a strong offensive performance that has them ranked 2nd in MLB this season.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are set to start Brandon Pfaadt, who has had an inconsistent season with a Win/Loss record of 13-8 and an ERA of 5.02. Despite his low walk rate of 4.8 BB%, Pfaadt’s projections indicate he may allow around 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits today, which could be problematic against a potent Dodgers lineup. However, his 3.98 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve as the season progresses.

Opposing him will be the elite Shohei Ohtani, projected to start for the Dodgers. With a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.29, Ohtani has shown flashes of brilliance despite limited starts this year. He projects to pitch around 5.0 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs, but his high strikeout potential will be crucial against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 5th in the league.

Given the teams’ recent form, the Diamondbacks are perceived as underdogs with a moneyline of +135, but with their strong offensive ranking and the potential for Pfaadt to outperform his season stats, this game could be more competitive than expected. As the Dodgers look to solidify their playoff positioning, the Diamondbacks are hoping to capitalize on any opportunity to turn the tide in their favor.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Shohei Ohtani’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Arizona’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Recording 92.5 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+20.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+10.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-135/+105)
  Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.75 Units / 48% ROI)