See the Weather Forecast for Phillies vs D-Backs – Saturday, September 20th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off on September 20, 2025, at Chase Field, both teams find themselves in distinctly different narratives. The Diamondbacks hold a record of 77-77, reflecting an average season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 92-62 record, marking them as one of the top contenders in MLB this year.

In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks struggled against the Phillies, who have now secured a strong foothold with their potent offense ranking 4th in the league. Philadelphia’s lineup is highlighted by a player who has been hot recently, recording 5 hits, including 3 home runs, over the last week. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 5th overall, showcasing their ability to score runs, which could lead to a high-scoring affair this time around, especially with the game total set at 9.0 runs.

On the mound, Zac Gallen is expected to start for the Diamondbacks. Despite his average performance this season, ranking 94th among starting pitchers, Gallen’s projected ERA of 4.73 suggests he could have been a bit unlucky so far. His peripherals indicate a potential for improvement, which could be crucial against a Phillies team that might exploit any weaknesses. Conversely, Aaron Nola, ranking 80th, has struggled this season with a 6.44 ERA. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he too could bounce back.

Betting markets indicate this matchup is expected to be close, with the Diamondbacks at -115 and the Phillies at -105. The Diamondbacks have a projected team total of 4.55 runs, which aligns with their offensive capabilities. As both teams aim to solidify their standings, this game could be pivotal in shaping their respective seasons.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Aaron Nola’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.4-mph fall off from last year’s 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bryce Harper has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95.2-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Zac Gallen has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has had positive variance on his side given the .054 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 119 games (+18.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 away games (+15.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)