Find the Official Lineup for Red Sox vs Rays – 9/20/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox on September 20, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a pivotal American League East matchup. This game marks the second of the series after the Red Sox triumphed over the Rays by an 11-7 score in their most recent encounter. Currently, the Rays stand at 75-79, contending for a Wild Card spot, while the Red Sox lead the race with an 84-70 record.

Tampa Bay will send right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser to the mound, who has been solid this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.11. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests that he may have been somewhat fortunate this year and could regress moving forward. On the other hand, Boston’s Kyle Harrison, a left-hander, presents a different challenge, having struggled with a 1-1 record and a 4.05 ERA. The projections indicate that he could struggle in this outing, projecting just 4.3 innings pitched with 2.4 earned runs allowed.

The Rays’ offense has shown flashes of brilliance, ranking 1st in MLB for stolen bases, while their overall batting average places them 8th, indicating their speed can be a game-changer. Conversely, the Red Sox rank 9th in offensive efficiency and boast a solid batting average at 6th. Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Rays ranked 1st and the Red Sox at 4th, making late-game strategy critical.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets suggest a competitive matchup. The Rays should be viewed as having underrated potential, given their strong pitching and offensive capabilities that could surprise Boston today.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Harrison to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Batters such as Alex Bregman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Adrian Houser who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Nate Eaton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Adrian Houser should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 64 of their last 114 games (+9.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 92 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.80 Units / 68% ROI)