Best Player Prop Bets for Yankees vs Orioles – Friday, September 19th, 2025

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

On September 19, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees in the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Yankees currently hold a solid 86-67 record and are in contention for a playoff spot, while the Orioles are struggling at 72-81, sitting at the bottom of the American League East. In their last encounter, the Yankees narrowly edged out the Orioles, continuing their strong offensive display.

The matchup features Orioles’ left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers, who boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 8-2 and an excellent ERA of 1.43. However, projections indicate he might be overperforming, as his xFIP suggests a regression could be on the horizon. Facing him will be Yankees’ right-hander Will Warren, who has a more average ERA of 4.44 and is projected to perform slightly better than his current numbers suggest.

The Yankees’ offense ranks as the 1st best in MLB, and they lead the league with 258 home runs this season. This powerful lineup will test Rogers, who is a high-groundball pitcher (48 GB%) and generally does well against teams that struggle to lift the ball. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense ranks just 20th, which could limit their ability to exploit Warren’s vulnerabilities.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with a Game Total set at 9.0 runs. The projections have the Orioles with a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Yankees are projected for 4.61 runs. Given the current dynamics, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially considering Baltimore’s ability to surprise on any given day.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Will Warren’s high usage rate of his fastball (62.8% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.412) suggests that Aaron Judge has experienced some positive variance this year with his .458 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Trevor Rogers’s 2411-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 79th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Dylan Beavers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Baltimore Orioles with a 25.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 124 games (+20.38 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+15.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Dylan Beavers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.10 Units / 278% ROI)