Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Angels vs Brewers – 9/18/25

Los Angeles Angels

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers, currently holding a commanding 93-59 record, are in a favorable position as they look to build on their recent success against the Los Angeles Angels. The Brewers won their last matchup decisively on September 12, with a score of 9-2, further solidifying their strong performance this season while the Angels sit at 69-83, mired in a below-average campaign.

In this interleague clash at American Family Field, the Brewers are projected to start Quinn Priester, who boasts an impressive 13-2 record and a solid 3.25 ERA this year. Priester’s ability to induce ground balls (57% GB rate) could play well against an Angels lineup that, despite their power (ranking 6th in MLB with 211 home runs), struggles with high strikeout rates (1st in MLB). This matchup favors Priester, especially as the Angels’ offense has shown vulnerability to pitchers who avoid the long ball.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a rough season with a 6-11 record and a higher-than-desired 4.08 ERA. Kikuchi’s tendency to walk batters (9.6 BB%) might be detrimental against a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 5th in MLB in walks. This aspect of their offense could give Milwaukee an edge, particularly with the Brewers’ impressive 2nd-best batting average in the league.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Brewers are favored heavily, reflected in their moneyline of -230. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.80 runs for Milwaukee, further indicating a potential offensive outburst. Given the current form and matchup dynamics, the Brewers appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways against a struggling Angels squad.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chris Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Chris Taylor has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Christian Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Today, Christian Moore is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.1% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Quinn Priester will hold the platoon advantage over 8 opposing hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.8-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-250)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 99 games (+31.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)