Astros vs Blue Jays Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 9/10/2025

Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Houston Astros on September 10, 2025, at Rogers Centre, the stakes are high for both teams. The Blue Jays, currently holding a strong 83-61 record, are putting together an impressive season. Conversely, the Astros are showing signs of struggle with a 78-67 record and face an uphill battle. In their most recent outing, the Blue Jays edged the Astros 4-3, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities.

Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays. While his Power Rankings place him at #185 among MLB starting pitchers, he has a respectable 4.02 ERA this season. Berrios has had a bit of luck, as indicated by a higher 4.73 xERA, suggesting he might struggle moving forward. He lasted only 2 innings in his last start on September 2, allowing 2 earned runs, which raises questions about his current form. Nonetheless, he projects to pitch roughly 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs.

On the other side, Jason Alexander will toe the rubber for the Astros. Although he holds a 4-1 record as a starter, his numbers indicate he’s faced challenges, with an average ERA of 4.68. His last outing saw him giving up 3 earned runs over 5 innings with 6 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 2nd in the league, buoyed by a powerful lineup that has produced a .304 batting average, the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Astros’ offense is middle-of-the-road at 13th overall but does have strengths with a .263 batting average.

With the Blue Jays being the betting favorites at -155, their high implied team total of 4.66 runs suggests confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Astros’ undervalued bullpen, currently ranked 25th. As they look to extend their winning streak and reinforce their playoff position, the Blue Jays seem poised for another strong performance against the Astros.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Jason Alexander has recorded 16.9 outs per GS this year, placing in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Toronto’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jeremy Pena, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Houston Astros have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his arsenal this season and has thrown it 26.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 130 games (+23.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+17.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-160/+125)
  Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.40 Units / 49% ROI)