Rockies vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/09/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 9, 2025, the stakes are high for the home team. With a record of 80-64, the Dodgers are in solid contention, currently positioned well in the National League West. Meanwhile, the Rockies find themselves at the bottom of the standings with a dismal record of 40-104, reflecting a season that has not gone their way.

In their previous matchup, the Dodgers defeated the Rockies convincingly, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Dodgers rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB, powered by a lineup that combines a good batting average and outstanding home run production. They are led by a key player who has recently hit .346 with an impressive 1.315 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, Emmet Sheehan is projected to start for Los Angeles. The right-hander has had a solid year, boasting a 3.59 ERA and a 5-3 record in just 9 starts. The projections suggest he’ll pitch approximately 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs and striking out about 6.3 batters. In stark contrast, Colorado’s German Marquez has struggled significantly, with a 6.19 ERA and a 3-12 record. He’s expected to last only 4.7 innings while allowing roughly 3.5 earned runs.

With the Dodgers’ elite bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they hold a distinct advantage if the game remains close late. As the game total sits at a high 9.0 runs, expectations are for a competitive, high-scoring affair, especially given the Rockies’ offense ranks just 26th in the league. All signs point to the Dodgers continuing their strong performance against a struggling Rockies team.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+240)
  In his last GS, German Marquez was in good form and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Karros has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 82-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-335)
  Emmet Sheehan is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) provides evidence that Michael Conforto has had some very poor luck this year with his .284 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-335)
  The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 143 games (+16.77 Units / 10% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.45 Units / 57% ROI)