Head-to-Head Preview: Dodgers vs Pirates Matchup 9/04/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 4, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Los Angeles Dodgers at PNC Park for the third game of their series. In their last encounter, the Pirates secured a commanding 3-0 victory, further complicating the Dodgers’ efforts as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning. Currently, the Dodgers sit at 78-61, enjoying a solid season, while the Pirates are struggling at 63-77, finding themselves near the bottom of the standings.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers. The Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes, who has emerged as a standout in the league, ranking 2nd among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system. Skenes boasts a stellar ERA of 2.05 this season, although his xFIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. He tends to pitch efficiently, allowing only 1.9 earned runs on average, but he also struggles with allowing a high number of hits, projecting at 4.4 per game.

Blake Snell of the Dodgers, although ranked 27th among starters, has been impressive with a 2.41 ERA. He also has a tendency to keep the ball on the ground, which may work in his favor against a Pirates offense that ranks 30th in home runs. The Pirates’ offensive struggles are evident, as they rank 29th overall, presenting an uphill battle against a well-rounded Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in the league.

While the betting markets have the Pirates at +100 and the Dodgers at -120, the projections suggest that a close contest is likely. With their respective strengths and weaknesses on display, there are intriguing narratives at play as both teams look to capitalize on their opportunities, especially with Skenes and Snell taking the mound.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Blake Snell’s curveball utilization has dropped by 5.2% from last year to this one (26.1% to 20.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (97.5 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Henry Davis’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 71.4-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 140 games (+22.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+14.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)
  Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+7.10 Units / 118% ROI)