Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Angels vs Astros – 8/31/25

Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on August 31, 2025, the stakes remain high for the Astros, who are fighting for playoff positioning. Currently standing at 75-61, Houston’s strong season contrasts sharply with the Angels’ 63-72 record, which has them in a disappointing position as the series progresses. In their last game, the Astros fell to the Angels, marking a rare setback in an otherwise successful run.

On the mound, the Astros will send Hunter Brown, who ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. With a solid 10-6 record and an impressive 2.37 ERA, Brown has proven to be a reliable asset for Houston. However, his 3.08 xFIP suggests some luck may be involved, hinting that he could face challenges moving forward. Brown’s high strikeout rate—29.1% this year—could play to his advantage against the Angels, who lead the league in strikeouts.

The Angels will counter with Jose Soriano, ranked 32nd among MLB starters. Soriano has a 9-9 record with a respectable 3.85 ERA, but his 9.9% walk rate presents a potential vulnerability against an Astros offense that ranks 4th in batting average and is known for its patient approach.

Given the Astros’ strong overall performance and their offensive edge, they look like the team to beat in this matchup. With a moneyline of -175, they are favored to claim victory, and the projections indicate an implied team total of 4.22 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on Soriano’s weaknesses today.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Jose Soriano (59% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Luis Rengifo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 80.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 10.7% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Angels ranks them as the #2 squad in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% less often this season (40.2%) than he did last season (47%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Typically, batters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Soriano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+17.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 59 away games (+15.74 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-195/+150)
  Jose Soriano has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 7 games (+7.40 Units / 82% ROI)