Game Time for Red Sox vs Orioles – 8/28/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 28, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Red Sox sit firmly in the playoff hunt with a record of 74-60, while the Orioles are struggling at 60-73, highlighting their below-average season. In their most recent encounter, the Red Sox edged out the Orioles 3-2, continuing their winning momentum.

On the mound, Cade Povich is set to take the ball for the Orioles. Povich, ranked 109th among starting pitchers, has had a rough season with a 5.13 ERA and a 2-7 record across 16 starts. His last outing was uneventful, pitching 5 innings and allowing 4 earned runs. He is projected to go 5.0 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.8 hits per game does not bode well against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Opposing him will be Garrett Crochet, who has been an elite performer this season with a 2.38 ERA and a 14-5 record, ranking 4th among MLB pitchers. Crochet’s last start was impressive, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run and racking up 11 strikeouts. He is projected to pitch 6.2 innings today, allowing only 2.0 earned runs, making him a significant threat.

The Red Sox offense ranks 7th overall in the league, bolstered by a solid batting average, while the Orioles sit at 20th. Despite Baltimore’s ability to hit home runs—ranking 13th in that category—consistent scoring has been a challenge. The projections suggest the Orioles could struggle to meet their low implied team total of 3.43 runs against Crochet, who thrives on reducing walks and limiting scoring.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (95.7 mph) below where it was last season (97.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jhostynxon Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Jhostynxon Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Red Sox projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .328 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cade Povich to throw 85 pitches today (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Alex Jackson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 125 games (+16.18 Units / 12% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-200)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)