Winning Probability and Team Stats for D-Backs vs Brewers Match – Monday August 25, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 25, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Brewers are currently enjoying a stellar season with an 81-50 record, firmly positioned for a playoff run. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks find themselves at a more mediocre 64-67, struggling to keep their playoff hopes alive.

In their last outing, the Brewers showcased their dominance by winning decisively, continuing their strong play behind the bat of their best hitter, who has been on a tear lately. The Brewers will send right-handed pitcher Brandon Woodruff to the mound, who boasts an impressive 4-1 record this season with a remarkable 2.47 ERA after starting only 8 games. Although Woodruff projects to allow 2.2 earned runs and 4.3 hits today, he’s known for his control, with a low 6.6 BB% that could mitigate the Diamondbacks’ patient approach at the plate.

On the other side, Arizona counters with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had an underwhelming season with a 5.40 ERA and a 5-7 record across 22 starts. His projections aren’t favorable either, as he is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs and 5.2 hits today. With a Power Rankings position of 27th for the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, they could face significant challenges in keeping the game close.

The Brewers offense ranks 3rd in batting average and 11th overall in talent estimates, while the Diamondbacks’ offense, though 4th in runs scored, may struggle against Woodruff’s skill set. Given the Brewers’ current form and the matchup advantages, they are favored heavily in this contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Eduardo Rodriguez places in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 87.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.5-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Woodruff in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Isaac Collins has experienced some positive variance given the .045 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-185)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 127 games (+30.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 106 games (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)