Cubs vs Reds Injury Report – Monday, July 29, 2024

Chicago Cubs

@

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on July 29, 2024, in a National League Central showdown. Both teams find themselves in similar positions this season, with the Reds holding a 50-55 record and the Cubs just a game ahead at 51-56. Neither squad is currently playing playoff-caliber baseball, and this game marks the first in their series.

The Reds will send Carson Spiers to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Spiers ranks 228th among MLB pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. Despite his 3.83 ERA, his projections are less favorable. He’s expected to pitch just 4.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 3.8 batters. His last start on July 12 saw him go 5 innings with 3 earned runs and an impressive 9 strikeouts, indicating some potential upside.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, another right-hander. Taillon boasts an excellent 2.96 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.18 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate this year. His projections aren’t stellar either; he’s expected to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.1 innings with a below-average strikeout rate. Taillon, however, pitched well in his last outing on July 23, going 7 innings while allowing just 1 earned run.

Offensively, both teams have had their struggles. The Reds rank 20th in overall offense and 27th in team batting average, although they lead MLB in stolen bases. The Cubs rank 22nd in offense and 23rd in batting average and home runs, making for a potentially low-scoring affair despite the high game total of 9.0 runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs to have a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting a razor-thin contest as both teams look to gain some momentum. Elly De La Cruz and Ian Happ, the best hitters for the Reds and Cubs respectively, will be key to watch. De La Cruz, in particular, has been hot lately, hitting .400 with 7 stolen bases over the last week.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jameson Taillon’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59.4% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Using Statcast data, Nico Hoerner is in the 2nd percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 3.000.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.3% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Carson Spiers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Carson Spiers’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 24th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jake Fraley is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
  The 4th-weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+11.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Mike Tauchman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)