Team Stats and Insights for D-Backs vs Rangers Match Preview – 8/13/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Texas Rangers

On August 13, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field for the third game in their series. The Rangers are currently sitting at 61-60, having had an average season thus far, while the Diamondbacks struggle with a record of 58-62, indicating a below-average performance. After their last matchup, which the Rangers won, they’ll be looking to build momentum against a Diamondbacks team that has been inconsistent.

Merrill Kelly is set to take the mound for the Rangers. He boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 9-7 and an impressive ERA of 3.38, making him a reliable option despite projections that suggest he may be due for a downturn. Kelly’s ability to limit earned runs (projected at 2.3 today) will be vital, especially against a Diamondbacks offense ranked 4th in MLB, showcasing their capability to score runs effectively.

Zac Gallen takes the hill for Arizona, bringing a less favorable record of 9-12 and a higher ERA of 5.31. While Gallen’s 4.03 xFIP indicates he might be due for a better outcome, his struggles could be amplified by the Rangers’ offensive capabilities, particularly with their struggles reflected in their 28th overall ranking in MLB offensive stats.

Despite Texas’s underwhelming offensive performance this season, they have shown flashes of potential, particularly in home base-stealing prowess, ranking 5th in that category. This could play a crucial role, especially if they find ways to get on base against Gallen, who tends to allow high hit totals. With the Rangers favored at -145, the projections suggest they should be able to capitalize on the Diamondbacks’ pitching woes.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Zac Gallen’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In the last week, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.318 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Recording 17.3 outs per GS this year on average, Merrill Kelly places in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Joc Pederson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 99-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas has really hit the ball hard. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (96.2 mph) ranks among the league’s best: #5 in the league this year.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 116 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 77 games (+15.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)