Recommended Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs Braves – Saturday August 09, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins meet for the fourth game of their series on August 9, 2025, after the Braves fell to the Marlins 5-3 in yesterday’s matchup. Both teams are currently struggling to find their footing, with the Braves sitting at 48-67 and the Marlins at 57-58. While the Braves are having a particularly rough season, their offense ranks 16th in MLB, suggesting some underlying talent that hasn’t translated into wins.

On the mound, the Braves will send Erick Fedde, who has had a tumultuous year with a 3-12 record and a troubling ERA of 5.32. Fedde’s advanced metrics indicate he is among the 225th best starting pitchers in MLB, making him one of the least effective starters this season. He projects to pitch about 5.8 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs today, but his tendency to allow 6.1 hits and 1.6 walks per outing raises concerns.

In contrast, the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcantara, ranked 62nd among MLB starters. Despite a disappointing 6-10 record and a high ERA of 6.44, Alcantara’s 4.48 xFIP suggests he may perform better than his numbers indicate, having been somewhat unlucky this season. He is projected to pitch 5.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, with a concerning average of 6.0 hits allowed.

With both bullpens in mind, the Braves rank 8th while the Marlins sit at 20th, giving Atlanta a potential edge late in the game. Betting markets see this matchup as a toss-up, with both teams at a moneyline of -110. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. Given the Braves’ offensive capabilities, they could surprise the Marlins despite their struggles.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kyle Stowers’s true offensive talent to be a .332, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .059 difference between that mark and his actual .391 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Harris II is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+19.75 Units / 42% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+115/-145)
  Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)