See the Weather Forecast for Astros vs Yankees – Saturday, August 9th, 2025

Houston Astros

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on August 9, 2025, in the second game of their series. This matchup holds particular significance as both teams are battling for positioning in a tightly contested American League. Currently, the Yankees are 61-55, having had an above-average season, while the Astros boast a record of 65-51, marking them as a solid contender this year.

In their last game, the Yankees showed resilience but ultimately fell short against the Astros, who continue to leverage their offensive prowess. The Yankees’ offense ranks 2nd in the league, showcasing an exceptional ability to hit home runs, but they may face challenges against the elite left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has excelled this season with a record of 11-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.83.

Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, looking to improve upon his rocky start to the season. With a troubling 0-1 record and an ERA of 13.50 in just one appearance, Gil is projected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. He is a low-strikeout pitcher facing an Astros offense that ranks as one of the least strikeout-prone in the league, which could play to Houston’s advantage. Conversely, Valdez is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and is backed by an Astros offense that ranks 11th overall.

According to advanced metrics, the Yankees have one of the strongest bullpens, ranked 4th in MLB, which may help them close out games more effectively as the season progresses. With the betting markets favoring the Astros slightly, the Yankees will need to capitalize on their offensive strengths while navigating the challenges presented by Valdez. Expect a competitive game with a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, indicating that both offenses should have opportunities to shine.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing 6 same-handed hitters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Luis Gil’s 96.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 97th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 7th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 115 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)
  Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)